Risk,War, and the Dangers of Soldier Identity

The profession of arms is distinct from other professions for many reasons. One reason which is not so obvious is that, unlike members of other professions, soldiers may go their entire careers preparing for a day that never arrives. All things considered, we should think this to be a very good thing. For soldiers, however, this can feel somewhat odd, since there is a natural desire to want to feel useful and to see one’s role and purpose find realization. Accordingly, the common soldier is forced to adopt a rather paradoxical mindset, one of longing for peace, and therefore for uselessness, while at the same time longing to be useful, which would entail that there be a war. This latter desire to be useful and to vindicate one’s identity as a soldier can sometimes take on an unhealthy life of its own. The pull of wanting too strongly to live up to a warrior identity, I argue, can sometimes skew a soldier’s ability to assess risk rationally. This article will therefore investigate how a soldier’s concept of self influences his or her overall capacity to evaluate risk in war and when such influence might become morally problematic.     

Can security vetting be extended to include the detection of financial misconduct?

An analysis of the security vetting files of 19 employees within a South African national department who had been found guilty of financial misconduct in the last five years uncovered that the existing security vetting processes did not detect the financial misconduct of which these employees have been found guilty. This research sets out to establish whether security vetting can be extended to include the detection of financial misconduct within the department and, if so, how. Moreover, if security vetting can indeed be so extended, can it possibly enhance the management of fraud risk across all South African public sector departments? Qualitative interviews were conducted with 27 employees who are key to fraud risk management and security vetting within the researched department. During the interviews, the following five themes emerged: (1) the reasons why employees commit financial misconduct; (2) why it is not detected by the security vetting process; (3) the potential alignment of the security vetting process to facilitate the detection of financial misconduct; (4) the following through on security vetting findings; and (5) sharing these findings with the internal audit and risk management functions within state departments. These themes were probed and are reported on, establishing firstly that security vetting can indeed be extended to include the detection of financial misconduct within the researched department, and secondly that it can enhance the management of fraud risk across all South African public sector departments, given the specific mandate of the State Security Agency (SSA) and the national security vetting strategy.     

Terrorism research: should we focus on the opponent or on our own people?

In terrorism research, three different sources of information and data exist: the terrorists and their environment; the incidents; and the population. This article discusses the strengths and weaknesses of research that is concerned with, or relies on, any of the mentioned sources. An in-depth understanding of the methodological issues that come with these sources is important to correctly interpret results from scientific studies. It is highlighted how the different scientific approaches add to a holistic view of terrorism as a phenomenon. Furthermore, the double-edged sword of information in the field of terrorism is discussed. From these deliberations, guidance concerning the future work of both scholars and decision-makers can be deducted.     

边境安全风险分析系统的构建研究

提出了信息化背景下边境安全风险情报分析的基本概念及其内涵,论述了信息化背景下边境安全风险分析系统的架构和面向边境安全风险分析的信息组织方式。     

基于概率图模型的海上多目标跟踪

针对海上复杂环境中多运动目标跟踪问题,提出了一种融合概率图模型和粒子滤波的跟踪方法.该方法采用二元马尔可夫随机场构建多目标模型,利用势函数表示其联合概率分布,最后用变差分法和粒子滤波推理后验概率密度.通过二阶回归模型准确构建状态转移方程,以及Mean-Shift迭代加速粒子采样,提高了算法精确度和运行效率.实验表明:该方法能很好地实现海上复杂环境中的多目标实时跟踪.     

Return policy: Hassle‐free or your money‐back guarantee?

This article compares the profitability of two pervasively adopted return policies—money‐back guarantee and hassle‐free policies. In our model, a seller sells to consumers with heterogeneous valuations and hassle costs. Products are subject to quality risk, and product misfit can only be observed post‐purchase. While the hassle‐free policy is cost advantageous from the seller's viewpoint, a money‐back guarantee allows the seller to fine‐tune the consumer hassle on returning the product. Thus, when the two return policies lead to the same consumer behaviors, the hassle‐free policy dominates. Conversely, a money‐back guarantee can be more profitable even if on average, high‐valuation consumers experience a lower hassle cost than the low‐valuation ones. The optimal hassle cost can be higher when product quality gets improved; thus, it is not necessarily a perfect proxy or signal of the seller's quality. We further allow the seller to adopt a mixture of these policies, and identify the concrete operating regimes within which these return policies are optimal among more flexible policies. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 403–417, 2014     

On the Determinants of Terrorism Risk Concern in Europe

We investigate whether differences in terrorism risk are mirrored on terrorism risk perception across European countries for the period 2003–2007. We find that the average propensity for terrorism risk concern is affected by actual risk levels. Country and individual heterogeneity contribute substantially to the variation of observed risk perception. Singles and individuals with white collar jobs are less likely to mention terrorism as one of the most pressing issues their country faces, while political positioning towards the right makes it more likely to be concerned about terrorism. As far as competing risks are concerned, we find that the likelihood terrorism is mentioned, decreases with spending on pensions as a percentage of GDP being higher. Finally, based on the Bayesian framework, we also examined the formation of terrorism risk perceptions, and decompose the observed country-level time series of terrorism activity into a long- and a short-run component. We concluded that the observed risk perception variation is only explained by the long-term trend of terrorism activity countries face.     

NO SUCH THING AS A FREE LUNCH

The funding of international nuclear risk mitigation is ad hoc, voluntary, and unpredictable, offering no transparent explanation of who is financially responsible for the task or why. Among many non-nuclear-armed states, this exacerbates a sense of injustice surrounding what they see as a discriminatory nuclear regime. The resulting erosion of the regime's legitimacy undermines support for efforts to prevent nuclear weapons dissemination and terrorism. This article proposes a transparent, equitable “nuclear-user-pays” system as a logical means of reversing this trend. This system envisions states contributing financially to international efforts to mitigate nuclear risks at a level relative to the degree of nuclear risks created by each state. “National nuclear risk factors” would be calculated by tabulating the risks associated with each state's civilian and military nuclear activities, as well as advanced dual-use and nuclear-capable missile activities, multiplying the severity of each risk by the probability of it occurring, and combining these results. A nuclear-user-pays model would create financial incentives for national and corporate nuclear risk mitigation, boost legitimacy and support for nuclear control efforts among non-nuclear-armed states, assist in preventing nuclear weapons dissemination and terrorism, and advance nuclear disarmament by helping progressively devalue nuclear weapons.     

模糊综合评判的装备研制风险评估

装备研制风险评估是在风险分析的基础上对所研究阶段的风险性进行评估,计算该阶段的风险得分,最终确定其风险等级,对结果进行比较分析,为下一步工作的开展确定方向,具有重要的指导意义.对装备研制的风险管理进行了研究.针对装备研制项目阶段特点,从风险管理工作的现实需求出发,以风险管理的基本理论为基础,结合其他领域已有的风险管理模型,建立了装备研制风险管理的针对性模型,并结合事例对装备研制风险管理模型的具体应用进行了说明.     

高新装备复合式预防性保修风险模型

结合高新装备保修需求,引入复合式预防性保修策略,以"定期更换周期内辅以功能检测"这种典型复合维修工作为例,从安全性影响的角度分析了装备的故障发生情况,并建立了其故障风险数学模型。在此基础上,通过算例给出了所建模型的应用方法,研究了该策略下决策变量对故障风险的影响,并分析了模型的通用性。